Pallade Veneta - Is Trump planning something big against Venezuela's Maduro?

The United States is in "armed conflict" with drug cartels, President Donald Trump said last week in a letter to Congress to provide legal underpinning for at least four strikes by US naval warships in international waters that have killed at least 21 people in recent weeks.

However, some lawmakers question whether such attacks are in fact legal.

US media have reported the existence of a Justice Department memo, which says agencies like the CIA could even be used against the Maduro government. This would smack of a time in the past when the United States worked to undermine or oust Latin American governments it did not like.

- '50-50 chance' -

Attorney General Pam Bondi, testifying Tuesday in Congress, refused to confirm whether such a memo does exist.

"What I can tell you is Maduro is a narco-terrorist," Bondi said as she noted her department has put a $50 million bounty on Maduro's head. "He is currently under indictment in our country."

Evan Ellis, a Latin America researcher at the US War College, said that if the current standoff continues until November or December there is a 50-50 chance the United States will "use credible intelligence information and bring Maduro to justice." He did not specify how this might be attempted.

Besides the warships that have attacked alleged drug-running boats, the United States has deployed F-35 war planes to Puerto Rico.

And the Caracas government, which has placed its military on alert and mobilized citizen militia, alleged last week that these planes flew over its coast.

Such flights and the fact that the US ships sailing off the coast of Venezuela have Marines on board, suggest that the United States might be planning some kind of escalation, said Ellis.

"President Trump, my general sense is -- his patience has run out," said Ellis, who served under Trump during his first term.

Maduro sent Trump a letter seeking dialogue, but the White House rejected the overture.

- Fall of Maduro? -

A US attack on some kind of drug trafficking target on Venezuelan soil is a possibility, said Frank Mora, a former deputy assistant secretary of Defense for the Western hemisphere during Barack Obama's first term.

"Deploying a naval flotilla to then not do anything, or simply take out some speed boats -- I do not think that is what they had in mind," Mora told AFP.

But the Trump administration does not have a clear goal, he argued.

"On one hand the president says he wants to dismantle the drug traffic. But at the same time, the hope is that this leads to the collapse of the regime," said Mora.

The clock is ticking for the Trump administration as lawmakers' opposition to the US deployment grows.

US diplomats and military experts may debate, but the final word is Trump's, as seen in other US military action like the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities.

"It's also possible that Trump could finally cut some deal that he's satisfied with and go on to the next thing," Ellis said.

D.Bruno--PV